Estimates of probability of default (PD), loss given default and exposure at default for portfolio segments containing reasonably homogeneous assets are essential for prudent risk management as well ...

Possibility theory and conditional probability offer complementary perspectives for modelling uncertainty, with each framework contributing distinct advantages. Possibility theory, rooted in fuzzy set ...

Probability theory has long provided a rigorous framework for quantifying uncertainty, yet its extension to infinite sets introduces profound conceptual challenges and opportunities. Contemporary ...

The problem of finding confidence intervals for the success parameter of a binomial experiment has a long history, and a myriad of procedures have been developed. Most exploit the duality between ...

In the ever-evolving toolkit of statistical analysis techniques, Bayesian statistics has emerged as a popular and powerful methodology for making decisions from data in the applied sciences. Bayesian ...

Source: Thunder Bay, Canada. Used with permission of Dan Hunt, MD. Coincidences attract our attention because they seem weird, odd, or unlikely. Their improbability stimulates wonder—“what are the ...

Simply sign up to the Global Economy myFT Digest -- delivered directly to your inbox. Nailed on. Investors are placing a near 100 per cent chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this ...

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of events happening. The greater the proportion of times an event can happen the greater (or more likely) the probability. Events can be ordered by the ...