The term structure of interest rates has been a relatively reliable predictor of recessions in the past. The term structure in the United States has been negatively sloped since the middle of 2023.

The term structure curve, which measures the difference in interest rates between short-term and long-term yields, has flattened. This indicates that investors are less confident that interest rates ...

In terms of takeaways, since I have not posted this graphic in two years, note that the term structure for 2015 was slightly flatter than average. Looking back a couple more years, note that 2012 and ...

Status quo forecasting is sometimes very easy to do. For example, if you predict that tomorrow’s high temperature will be the same as today’s high, your estimate will be close to the actual high much ...